Barça as metaphor: Independence would be an absolutely economic disaster.
Are you one of the massive Spanish League "La Liga" fans? What
would you think about a Catalonia League? Could be interesting for you?
Nowadays Barça it is one of the most admired squads in
the world. It is the dominator of last decade in Spanish League and has won
three European championships in this century. But there is an unexpected
trouble in the horizon. A virtual independence of Catalonia (still remote) would
convert this powerful squad and this thriving business into a european small
size team, champion of a marginal league.
Football
Clubs have four main revenue streams:
1. Incomes for Season Tickets and Single Match Tickets.
2.
Television broadcasting rights.
3.
Incomes for Champions League.
4.
Marketing, publicity, selling of shirts.
 |
| 2011-2012 FC Barcelona Incomes |
 |
| 2011-2012 FC Barcelona Expenditures |
1.
Incomes for Season Tickets and Single
Match Tickets.
In the season
2011-12, Barça entered €128,5 million. Even the most loyal supporter would not
pay the same to see Real Madrid, Valencia, Sevilla, Atlético Madrid, Athletic
Bilbao, Deportivo de La Coruña, etc, than to see Girona, Nástic, Sabadell and
other neighborhood teams. It is very conservative say that the prices have to
bring down 10%, and the average home attendances to the stadium will
also be lower by 10%.
So in a very very
very favorable case, incomes will be €104 million.
2.
Television broadcasting rights.
Barça and
Madrid receive each €135 million per year due to La Liga broadcasting rights.
How much can Barça receive for the Catalonia League? From a national market of
47 million people to 7 million. Looking the Catalan’s teams in the Spanish
football tiers, they can conform a league of two teams from the actual 1st
tier. Two teams from the 2nd. 7 from the 3rd, and to
complete a small league of 18 teams, another 7 from the 4th tier. Can
you imagine Messi playing in 11 stadiums of less than 10,000 capacity? Me
neither.
So, if
Spanish League generates €617,5 million, it has sense and being very generous
again, that Catalonia league would generate 20%, €123 million. With a deal of
Barça 50%, Espanyol 30%, and all the other teams 20%, Barça would receive €62
million.
|
|
Team
|
Season
Ticket Holders
|
Stadium
Capacity
|
Current
Division
|
|
1
|
FC Barcelona
|
86.314
|
98.772
|
1st
Tier
|
|
2
|
RCD Espanyol
|
32.000
|
40.500
|
|
|
3
|
Girona FC
|
6.000
|
9.500
|
2nd
Tier
|
|
4
|
CE Sabadell FC
|
4.000
|
18.000
|
|
|
5
|
Lleida Esportiu
|
-
|
13.500
|
3rd
Tier
|
|
6
|
CE L'Hospitalet
|
800
|
6.740
|
|
|
7
|
UE Sant Andreu
|
2.000
|
15.000
|
|
|
8
|
CF Reus Deportiu
|
800
|
4.847
|
|
|
9
|
AE Prat
|
400
|
1.000
|
|
|
10
|
Club Gimnástic
|
7.000
|
12.000
|
|
|
11
|
CF Badalona
|
3.000
|
10.000
|
|
|
12
|
UE Olot
|
-
|
2.000
|
4th
Tier
|
|
13
|
UE Cornellá
|
500
|
1.500
|
|
|
14
|
CE Europa
|
1.200
|
7.000
|
|
|
15
|
UE Rubí
|
-
|
6.500
|
|
|
16
|
AEC Manlleu
|
750
|
3.000
|
|
|
17
|
UE Figueres
|
700
|
9.500
|
|
|
18
|
FC Santboiá
|
1.000
|
2.500
|
 |
| 2011-2013 CL Incomes |
3.
Incomes for Champios League.
Let’s suppose that Barcelona will be in the semifinals of Champions
League every year, they will earn €22.1 million. What we can assert is that the
Market Pool will decrease significantly. Probably like the Scottish Premier
League level (€10 million).
4.
Marketing, publicity, selling
of shirts.
The rest of Spain is the principal market for Barça
products. It is assumed that Spanish will stop liking the main team of an
independent Catalonia. In addition, a less attractive league against small
teams will be less interesting for foreigners, and even for the own
Catalonians. Let’s be generous again, and say that this only produces a fall of
20%, from €167 million to €134 million.
Conclusions:
1.
FC Barcelona Incomes first year since independence
would be:
Tickets €104 + Television Broadcasting Rights €74 (Catalonia + Champions
League) + Incomes CL €22 +Marketing €134 + Others €10 = €344 million.
2. Expenditures of year 2011-2012 were €494 million, most of them salaries
of players. Net debt for a hypothetical year 1 since independence, would be €150
million.
3. Net debt this season 2012-2013 is €334 million. Increasing in short term
by €150 million per year.
4. This is a short term analysis. Effects in long term would be
devastating. I just can’t imagine Messi, Iniesta, etc playing in these 4th
tier stadiums, even if Barça could afford their salaries by waving a
magic wand.
5. It would be harder every year to hold good players with the new low
salaries, and would be harder to reach to the CL semifinal, so money from CL
and from Marketing would be lower and lower.
6. Effects for Spanish League would be deep, but not as dramatic. National
market would be 40 million people, with traditional teams like Real Madrid,
Atlético, Valencia, Sevilla, Betis, Athletic Bilbao, Deportivo de La Coruña,
Mallorca, Real Oviedo…
7. Football is a metaphor about the situation of Catalonia and the rest of
Spain after independence. Catalonia has its biggest market in Spain, followed
at a distance by European Union. The first consequence of independence is the
rejection from the EU (in the same way as the expulsion from La Liga). Their
products will be hardly sold in Spain and Europe, with the consequent economic
disaster, and the bankrupt of a region with high debts (as the case of FC Barcelona).
All without the social and political impact of fracturing a region with at
least half of its population feeling like they are part of Spain in some way.
My advice: think twice.
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