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Friday, October 18, 2013

Petroleum Consumption Vs Production (II)

With the Consumption Vs Production matrix, we can compare the differences between the consumption and the production of each country in percentages (see Table 1 “Consumption VS Production by countries”).


U.S.A. In the case, the US has a deficit of 51.47%. In other words, the US only produces one half of its oil needs.

Net Importers. Other countries have a worst scenario. Japan, Korea and the European countries (except UK), are industrial societies with large oil needs, but they do not produce any significant amount of oil. They must import from 90% to almost 100% of their needs.

Net Exporters. On the other hand, we have the OPEC countries, Brazil, Canada, Russia and Mexico, whose have enough oil to cover their needs and export to third countries. The most exporter countries are (in this order of world exportations):  Russia 10.50%, Saudi Arabia 9.00%, Iraq 3.32%, Iran 3.25%, United Arab Emirates 3.20%, Venezuela 2.77%, Canada 1.88%, and Mexico 1.28%. But in relative terms, UAE has the record. They export seven times what they consume.

China and India. The two most populous countries in the world, have different situations. While China covers its oil consumption with its own production, India imports 2/3 of their needs.


Summary and conclusion:

The U.S. consumes the double than its produces. This only can cause problems:

  1. Economic.
Money is flying away of the country. U.S. has recorded negative trade balance in Petroleum. Despite the tendency is to slowly decline the importation needs last years, the US brings the half of its needs from foreign countries.

  1. Strategic.
Short term: U.S. is energetically dependent of third producer countries. These countries are principally OPEC and Russia, and definitely, these countries are not allies. This means that:

    1. They can “blackout” U.S.A in case of a war against them.
    2. The huge amount of money that is going to these countries is escaping to our control, and could be used in illegal activities against the Country.
Long term: As shown in EIA's International Energy Outlook 2011, the global supply of crude oil, other liquid hydrocarbons, and biofuels is expected to be adequate to meet the world's demand for liquid fuels for at least the next 25 years. After that, nobody knows. The experience tells us that the technical improvements allow us to discover and produce more and more oil fields, giving us some bonus years over these 25 years. We need and Energy Strategic Plan.

  1. Employment.
The National Oil and Gas Sector is the motor of Texas economy, and one of the most important sectors in the U.S. One fifth of the new employments in the country is created in the Oil and Gas sector in Texas. This denotes the importance of this industry in real life, and in political decisions. We have passed the Peak Production in onshore Texas, but there is an encouraging future in the Gulf of Mexico´s deepwater.

  1. Future.
Oil is not a renewable raw material, so the only way to face the future is to decrease progressively the consumption of oil to the level of the Western European Countries (half barrels per person than the actual rate). Then, consumption would be equal to production for some years, while the country develops alternative energies to reach its necessities and the longed energetic self-sufficiency (Nuclear, Windmills, Hydroelectric and Solar combined with Oil and Gas).

References:

U.S. Energy Information Administration

“Reserves of Hydrocarbons”

WIKIPEDIA

“List of countries by oil Consumption”
“List of countries by oil Production”

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Petroleum Consumption Vs Production (I)

This is the first post of a serie dedicated to the Worldwide Petroleum Consumption and Production.



The consumption and production data by countries is easy to find in Wikipedia. I elaborated the following Table 1 “Consumption and Production by countries”. I selected the first 30 countries by production and consumption of refined petroleum products and biofuel.

The date of the consumption data is 2013, and the date of production data is 2010. That is the reason why the oil consumption is bigger than the oil production. As this is not an academic article, and only an exercise, I solve this contradiction assuming that the percentages have not suffered a significant change between the years 2010 and 2013, so I can compare the data in terms of percentage.


At first sight, we see that USA, China, and Saudi Arabia, are in the top five, both consumption and production.

Surprisingly for me, the United States (4.45% of the world population) consumes the same amount of oil than the following seven most consumer countries: China, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Canada and Russia together (42,34% of world population).

Each American consumes as much oil than 18 chinese or 28 indians. China and India are hughe countries, with large rural populations, so we cannot compare U.S. with them.

If we compare U.S.A. with the top five most industrialized and poblated countries of the European Union (Germany,United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain), each american consumes between 2.2 and 2.5 times what a western european does.

Only Canada, Saudi Arabia and Singapore consume petrol more than U.S. (two great producers with low population and big extention, and one State-City)

Friday, September 6, 2013

Hoover Dam. Amazing proof of human wit.

One of the America’s favorite cities would not exist as we know it today without Hoover Dam. California and other Southwestern States neither. Prices of vegetables in US would be higher.  Hoover Dam is the heart of Southwest, providing clean energy, water, protection against floods and recreation to millions of people. 


Las Vegas Strip-Hoover Dam. 35 miles and 45 minutes ride (Google Maps).

Colorado River flows along a 1,400 miles course from the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California (Mexico). It had flowed free for 40 million years, until the human being dominated it in 1935.

First settlers suffered the seasonal changes of the River. It was a love-hate relation from the very beginning. Agricultures need the water that Colorado River provides, and settled in its low farmlands. It was like an Oasis in the desert. But in late spring and early summer, the snow of the Rocky Mountains melted causing massive floods and destruction. During late summer and fall, the river dried to a trickle, too low to divert.

People from the East, especially North East, did not see this as a Federal issue, so no solution was provided. In addition, the share of the water involved seven States, what made the problem bigger.

In 1922 a representative of each State signed an agreement, which divided the Colorado River in two basins, upper and lower half. It paved the way for the Hoover Dam.

The upstream face of Hoover Dam. Looking downstream from the Arizona rim (Own Photo).

Construction began in 1931. It was the zenith of America’s Great Depression, when the workers were desperate for a job with they could feed their families. The first three weeks after project was announced, local job office received 12,000 applications. In the beginning, workers and their families lived in tents around the construction place and the river. 21,000 men worked in the Hoover Dam and lived with their families in poor living conditions and extreme temperatures.

It was dessert: no cities, no water supply, no roads nor any infrastructure, and the nearest railroad was in a small unknown town called Las Vegas 35 miles far away.
The live conditions were so bad, that the company had to build everything, even a new town, Boulder City. The city was well designed and constructed, as a symbol of prosperity in the Great Depression days.

The downstream face of Hoover Dam. Looking upstream from the Arizona rim (Own Photo).

Construction:

Phase 1: Four tunnels were constructed to divert Colorado River, making a dry area where the dam could be placed. Rock excavated from the tunnels was laid into two temporary coffer dams to divert river to the tunnels. Tunnels opened in November 1932.

Phase 2: 2.6 million cubic meters was poured to construct the dam.
Two huge manufacturing concrete plants were built on the construction side for providing this huge amount of concrete. But engineers had a big worry: Heat.
When we mix the ingredients of concrete: water, sand, rocks and cement, there is a chemical reaction, which generates internal heat slowing down the curing process. The larger you pour, the longer it cures. So they decided to build Hoover in a series of interlocking blocks of 5 feet height, but that was not enough. To cool the concrete more, the engineers disposed a system of pipes crossing the blocks of concrete. They pumped cold water in the pipes, so the concrete cooled down.
To make the construction even faster, they organized a competition between the different pouring teams, and it worked! 8,000 thousand cubic meters of concrete were poured each day.

In January 1935, arch was completed, and in September 1935 the very last concrete was poured, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt dedicated the Dam.  The construction of the power plant finished one year later. The Lake Mead needed 6 years to be completely filled, but the generation of electricity began before. In 1939 the Dam’s power plant became the largest hydroelectricity facility in the world. 112 workers gave their lives to make this dream possible.

Hoover Dam Power plant (Own Photo).
  
Facts:
Location: Colorado River. Between Nevada and Arizona. 35 miles from Las Vegas.
Cost: $49 million ($811 million today, 6 Gareth Bales)

The Dam:
Type: Arch gravity.
Height: 726.4 feet (221.3 meters, half of the Empire State Building height)
Crest length: 1244 feet (379.2 meters)
Crest width: 660 feet (201.2 meters)
Volume of Concrete: 3.25 million cubic yards (2.6 million cubic meters)

The Powerplant:
Commercial generating units: 17.
Nameplate capacity: 2800 megawatts (enough to serve 1.3 million people)
Energy Distribution: California: 55.91%, Nevada: 25.14%, Arizona: 18.95%

Lake Mead:
Shoreline: 550 miles (885 km, 1.44 times Delaware shoreline)
Capacity: 28,254,000 acre-feet (34.85 billion cubic meters, enough to cover all the State of New York with 30 cm of water)
Maximum depth: 498 feet (151.4 meters)
Surface area: 156,800 acres (63,455 hectares, almost 89,000 soccer pitches)
Length when full: 110 miles (177 km)


More info:

National Geographic Megastructures. Hoover Dam: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBJq4W9V4Lw

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Copenhagen-Hamburg: A delightful trip in the train-ship.

If you live in Copenhagen, a nice weekend trip is going to Hamburg. Probably the easiest way to go is by train. A peaceful four hours and a half trip in a comfortable brand new train. But this journey holds a surprise.



Conpenhagen-Hamburg. This 331 km journey takes 4 hours and a half by train. 
Return tickets from 83€/person.

We thought that the train would go west through bridges that connect the island of Copenhagen (Zealand) and Funen with Jutland peninsula, and then go south crossing the border to Germany. But we took South direction; we left Zealand Island to Lolland Island crossing by bridge. Once arrived to Rodbyhavn town, the whole train went into a big Ferry. The floor of the ferry is prepared with grooved rails, so the train went directly from onshore to the ship. If you are asleep you will not notice that you cross the sea in a train, which is as well in a ferry.

Train inside the Ferry.

The Ferry also carries cars, buses and trucks. When the train arrives, all the other vehicles are already on board, what is necessary to meet the schedule.
Once inside the boat, a gentle woman advice you through the speakers to get out from the train and go for a walk on the boat deck, restaurant, supermarket, etc. We did, but some of the passengers stood in the train, sleeping or reading.

The transit in the Ferry took 60 minutes, but time flies while you explore the Ferry and buy something in the shop. Then people returned to the train, which disembarked in Puttgarden (Germany), and went to Hamburg, previous one stop in Lübeck. We got out in Hamburg, but this train finishes the journey in Berlin.

Great experience in our Hamburg weekend, probably it is the funniest city in the north of Germany. It was a pitty that we went there after the football season, and we could not see the atmosphere at St Pauli’s Stadium, but we definitely had a nice surprise with this sailor train we had never heard about.

Investigating more about this Ferry, I discovered an interesting project to replace the boat connection by a bridge or a tunnel. After discussion, the Danish Parliament voted to construct a tunnel for these reasons: lower visual impact, it does not interference with maritime navigation and birds’ migration, and above all, it can be used in adverse meteorological conditions. This votation was in 2011, but high cost of a 19 km tunnel, the potential loss of jobs both in Rodbyen and Puttgarden, and economic crisis, seems to be the reasons for the actual paralysis of the project.

Let see if both Danish and German government will invest such a huge amount of money in this project after the economic crisis; but in my opinion, it is a charming, surprising and original trip in the way it is nowadays, as the “maritime train”.

More info:

Tunnel or bridge? Economic impact. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gF6NRWda1Lk

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

5 Tips for find an apartment in Copenhagen.


How to find and rent an apartment in Copenhagen and not die in the attempt.


If you are foreigner and you just have arrived to Copenhagen, you soon will realize the difficulties of finding an apartment here. Before beginning to despair, you should take these tips, which will make your search easier.

   1.       Websites:
a.      Visit this free website: www.dba.dk
Here you have apartments and houses for rent. But has also second hand bicycles, cars, electronic devices, etc.
b.      Visit www.boligportal.dk
It is free to search for the apartments, but if you have to contact the owner, you have to pay a little price. It depends on how many days you want to access.
c.       www.airbnb.dk
If you need a place to stay for some days, while you seek for something else, you could visit this website, where people rent their own apartments for some days while they are travelling to other countries. It is cheaper and more comfortable than Danish hotels.

   2.      Constancy:
Monitor websites every morning. Owners that post a new ad receive almost one hundred emails first day (no joking), if the apartment is interesting. If there is a mobile number, forget to send an email. Best strategy is to call as soon as possible, and try to make an appointment to see the apartment. It is very important to be one of the first to call.

   3.      Location:
There is curious phenomenon with the prices (DKK/m2) in Copenhagen Metropolitan Area. Variations are very low between different neighborhoods.  Do not be scared about searching an apartment to rent in a trendy location, because you will pay a little more than in another neighborhood or town. The variation of price is not referred to location, but by the size.

Vesterbro, Frederiksberg, Østerbro: they are the three neighborhoods surrounding the down town, and well communicated by train, bus and in some cases Metro. Here you will feel the real Danish life, and ride your bike to anywhere. Here you can find four or five floor buildings, bike paths, gardens, parks, and plenty of supermarkets and schools.

Vest Amager: Designed as a new area with big parks, malls and open spaces, it is in risk to be a middle-class ghetto for foreigners. It is well communicated with city center by metro and bus, but Danish shy away from this area.

Hellerup, Gentofte, Lyngby and northern towns: Danish high-class neighborhoods. Most of buildings are family houses.

Valby, Vanløse and west Copenhagen: It is a good choice. It is a little cheaper and not far away from the city center.

   4.      Apartment rental agencies:
Be aware of these rental agencies. This is the most important tip! As a desperate foreigner you would have temptation on call one of these agencies and get over the problem. Do not do it!! You will have to pay a 3 months deposit, and you will make a huge effort to recover it, if finally you can.
In my personal opinion, and based on my own experiences, you must specially avoid this one: http://www.cityapartment.dk

   5.      You found it!
Congratulations! You did it. But be careful with the contract. Try getting a copy of the contract in English. Be sure that you have access to all the common facilities of the building (laundry, bikes room…), check that central heating is included in the price, and ask for the notice period to leave the apartment.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Economic Analysis of Spanish High Speed Railway.


Economic Analysis of Spanish High Speed Railway (H.S.R.) System.


(Modification from http://www.adif.es)

I will focus the analysis in Spain. Today, the operating system can be separated into corridors:
1.       North East: Madrid-Barcelona-French Border
2.   East: Madrid-Valencia
3.   South: Madrid-Sevilla-Málaga
4.      North West: Madrid-Valladolid

Costs. The main Costs for High Speed Trains are three:
1.       Infrastructure. The average cost is  €12 Million/Km
2.      Maintenance Costs. About €150,000 / (Km*year)
3.      Operational cost. €26 /(Km*Train)

Incomes:
The incomes are derived from the sale of the tickets. The standard ticket price is
0.233 €/km, but there are multiples types of discounts. 99% of tickets have some kind of discount. Having a look on the statistics, the average ticket price is:

0.233€/(km*p)*(0.24*0.4+0.33*0.8+0.43*0.7 )=0.154 €/(km*p)

Hypothesis:
1.       At least, trains must cover operational costs. With the current prices policy, that means than the occupation of every train should be more than 56.3%. There can’t be levels of occupation lower than that.
2.      If we want to recover maintenance and operational costs:
In a corridor with trains at 100% of occupation from A to B, the number of passengers (Np) should be:

0,154€/(km*p)*Np=150,000€/km+26€/(km*Train)*Train/300p*Np
Np=2,227,000 passengers every year.

But for 80% of occupation, the number of passengers (Np) should be:

0,154€/(km*p)*Np=150,000€/km+26€/(km*Train)*Train/(300p*0.8)*Np
 Np=3,284,000 passengers every year, what means 18 trains from one city to the other every day.

With some intermediate stops, we can reduce the number of passengers needed to do a corridor profitable (we suppose 80% occupation)

i (Npi*Kmi)=K*kmc

where,
K=150,000(€/km)/(0.154€/(km*p)-26€/(km*300p*0.8))=3,284,000 (p)
K is a constant, but it depends on the % of occupation
Npi: Passengers between two stations
Kmi: Kilometres between two stations
Kmc: Total kilometres of corridor.

 Now, the equation depends on the km and passengers between stations.


I will study the North-East Corridor, which links Madrid and Barcelona:

((A)) Point To Point Passengers.
((B)) Incomes:  A regular ticket cost 0,233€/km. 33% of passengers bought a return ticket with a 20% disccount. 24% of passengers bought promotional tickets with 60%.disccount. 43% were pensioner or youth, and had 30% disccount.
((C)) Average seat occupancy of 78%. Each train has 300 seats available.
((D)) Total Maintenance Cost is 618km*150.000€/km=92,7 million €

With Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona, the line is almost profitable.


Conclusions:
1.       We need to assume that infrastructure investment will be never recovered.

2.      At least, trains must cover operational costs. With the current prices policy, that means than the occupation of the train should be 56,3%. There can’t be levels of occupation lower than that. Sometimes the authorities say that a line is profitable only because operational costs are covered.

3.      The average maintenance of the line is 150.000€/km. It is the same cost per km connecting Madrid and Barcelona than connecting two small towns. That means that we need big population in the end of the lines to have enough passengers to cover these high costs. But medium size cities between help a lot to cover costs of maintenance and operations.

4.      For a distance shorter than 100-150 km there is no such a big difference with the conventional train due to the periods of acceleration and braking. From 150 km to 350 km, HST is always better option. From 350 km to 650 – 700 km, HST has to compete fiercely with plane, and for longer than 700km, the plane is always best, except for train fans.

      >150km conventional train
      150-350km HST
      350km-700km HST or Plane (depending on many factors)
      >700k Plane
  
More info:













Friday, January 25, 2013

Independence: Bad Business for Catalonia.


Barça as metaphor: Independence would be an absolutely economic disaster.

  
Are you one of the massive Spanish League "La Liga" fans? What would you think about a Catalonia League? Could be interesting for you?

Nowadays Barça it is one of the most admired squads in the world. It is the dominator of last decade in Spanish League and has won three European championships in this century. But there is an unexpected trouble in the horizon. A virtual independence of Catalonia (still remote) would convert this powerful squad and this thriving business into a european small size team, champion of a marginal league.

Football Clubs have four main revenue streams:

  1.       Incomes for Season Tickets and Single Match Tickets.
  2.      Television broadcasting rights.
  3.      Incomes for Champions League.
  4.      Marketing, publicity, selling of shirts.

2011-2012 FC Barcelona Incomes
2011-2012 FC Barcelona Expenditures
    
  1.      Incomes for Season Tickets and Single Match Tickets.

In the season 2011-12, Barça entered €128,5 million. Even the most loyal supporter would not pay the same to see Real Madrid, Valencia, Sevilla, Atlético Madrid, Athletic Bilbao, Deportivo de La Coruña, etc, than to see Girona, Nástic, Sabadell and other neighborhood teams. It is very conservative say that the prices have to bring down 10%, and the average home attendances to the stadium will also be lower by 10%.
So in a very very very favorable case, incomes will be €104 million.

  2.     Television broadcasting rights.

Barça and Madrid receive each €135 million per year due to La Liga broadcasting rights. How much can Barça receive for the Catalonia League? From a national market of 47 million people to 7 million. Looking the Catalan’s teams in the Spanish football tiers, they can conform a league of two teams from the actual 1st tier. Two teams from the 2nd. 7 from the 3rd, and to complete a small league of 18 teams, another 7 from the 4th tier. Can you imagine Messi playing in 11 stadiums of less than 10,000 capacity? Me neither.
So, if Spanish League generates €617,5 million, it has sense and being very generous again, that Catalonia league would generate 20%, €123 million. With a deal of Barça 50%, Espanyol 30%, and all the other teams 20%, Barça would receive €62 million.



Team
Season Ticket Holders
Stadium Capacity
Current Division
1
FC Barcelona
86.314
98.772
1st Tier
2
RCD Espanyol
32.000
40.500
3
Girona FC
6.000
9.500
2nd Tier
4
CE Sabadell FC
4.000
18.000
5
Lleida Esportiu
-
13.500
3rd Tier
6
CE L'Hospitalet
800
6.740
7
UE Sant Andreu
2.000
15.000
8
CF Reus Deportiu
800
4.847
9
AE Prat
400
1.000
10
Club Gimnástic
7.000
12.000
11
CF Badalona
3.000
10.000
12
UE Olot
-
2.000
4th Tier
13
UE Cornellá
500
1.500
14
CE Europa
1.200
7.000
15
UE Rubí
-
6.500
16
AEC Manlleu
750
3.000
17
UE Figueres
700
9.500
18
FC Santboiá
1.000
2.500


2011-2013 CL Incomes
  3.     Incomes for Champios League.
Let’s suppose that Barcelona will be in the semifinals of Champions League every year, they will earn €22.1 million. What we can assert is that the Market Pool will decrease significantly. Probably like the Scottish Premier League level (€10 million).

  4.      Marketing, publicity, selling of shirts.

The rest of Spain is the principal market for Barça products. It is assumed that Spanish will stop liking the main team of an independent Catalonia. In addition, a less attractive league against small teams will be less interesting for foreigners, and even for the own Catalonians. Let’s be generous again, and say that this only produces a fall of 20%, from €167 million to €134 million.

Conclusions:
1.       FC Barcelona Incomes first year since independence would be:
Tickets €104 + Television Broadcasting Rights €74 (Catalonia + Champions League) + Incomes CL €22 +Marketing €134 + Others €10 = €344 million.
2.      Expenditures of year 2011-2012 were €494 million, most of them salaries of players. Net debt for a hypothetical year 1 since independence, would be €150 million.
3.      Net debt this season 2012-2013 is €334 million. Increasing in short term by €150 million per year.
4.      This is a short term analysis. Effects in long term would be devastating. I just can’t imagine Messi, Iniesta, etc playing in these 4th tier stadiums, even if Barça could afford their salaries by waving a magic wand.
5.      It would be harder every year to hold good players with the new low salaries, and would be harder to reach to the CL semifinal, so money from CL and from Marketing would be lower and lower.
6.      Effects for Spanish League would be deep, but not as dramatic. National market would be 40 million people, with traditional teams like Real Madrid, Atlético, Valencia, Sevilla, Betis, Athletic Bilbao, Deportivo de La Coruña, Mallorca, Real Oviedo…
7.      Football is a metaphor about the situation of Catalonia and the rest of Spain after independence. Catalonia has its biggest market in Spain, followed at a distance by European Union. The first consequence of independence is the rejection from the EU (in the same way as the expulsion from La Liga). Their products will be hardly sold in Spain and Europe, with the consequent economic disaster, and the bankrupt of a region with high debts (as the case of FC Barcelona). All without the social and political impact of fracturing a region with at least half of its population feeling like they are part of Spain in some way. My advice: think twice. 


  
More info: